Trimble Insight 2024: Expert Panel Explored How Fleets Can Prepare for Autonomous Trucking

Over the past few years, autonomous vehicles (AVs) have shifted from a futuristic, buzzword technology to a present-day reality as they move out of testing and into real-world applications. At Trimble’s Insight Tech Conference, a panel of experts from leading autonomy companies gathered for a special panel session and media roundtable to explore how autonomy can and will transform fleets and transportation and logistics operations.

The panel included Andrew Forman, vice president of investment banking at TD Securities; Daniel Goff, director of external affairs at Kodiak Robotics;  Frank Mabry, senior analyst of commercialization and strategy at Torc Robotics; and Arn Hayden, business development manager at Trimble.

Each company offered a unique, expert perspective throughout the conversations based on different experience:

• TD Securities is a leading investment bank with focuses on autonomy in a variety of industries, including heavy-duty trucking.
• Kodiak was founded in 2018 and is partnered with several major shippers in the U.S. to bring fully driverless commercial vehicles to the roads.
• Torc Robotics is a subsidiary of Daimler, the largest heavy-duty truck OEM in North America, that is developing highly automated trucks to improve the safety and efficiency of transporting goods.
• Trimble provides technology solutions that support the autonomous trucking market.

Seth Clevenger, features editor for Transport Topics, the transportation and logistics news publisher, moderated the conversation. 

Autonomous Trucking Is "Tremendously Safer"

With human-driven large trucks involved in approximately 5,000 fatal accidents per year, the panelists agreed that one of the biggest potential benefits of autonomous trucking is safer roads.

“Safety is the number one benefit to come from this technology,” Kodiak’s Goff said. “People can assume that the robot driver is going to be driving in some sort of weird robotic way, but we put a lot of effort into making sure they drive very predictably, naturally and courteously.”

Additionally, Goff said, autonomous trucks don’t come with some of the most common risky driving behaviors that can accompany human drivers, such as distracted driving, fatigue or speeding.

“As Dan said, it’s going to be tremendously safer,” Torc’s Mabry agreed. “This is also going to allow trucking companies to build their freight network better, so they can schedule something purposefully out of that destination back to the origin with an AV – cutting down empty miles, and you don’t have to worry about driver fatigue. You can keep the truck moving all the time, which can help trucking companies be more profitable.”

Another future benefit from safer trucks? Lower insurance costs, according to Forman.

“Because these autonomous vehicles are so safe, a lot of companies are self-insuring and reinsuring on the backend because they have that confidence,” Forman, from TD Securities, said.

“Driverless, Not Human-Less"

In the current labor market for trucking, there’s long been concern about a shortage of truck drivers (up to 160,000 by 2028, according to the American Trucking Associations), an issue that panelists say could be alleviated by autonomous vehicles.

“These trucks are driverless, but they’re not human-less,” Goff stated. “There’s a lot of work that’s going to need to be done to support AVs, as well as many downstream jobs that will come from autonomy.”

Goff shared a statistic from a recent US Department of Transportation report that found that the adoption of autonomous vehicles could create up to 35,000 jobs, increase annual earnings by $200 per worker, and increase the United States GDP by .3%.

Additionally, Goff stated, the transition to autonomous vehicles will take decades, ensuring long-term job security for anyone who wishes to go into the field. But even with autonomous vehicles covering unfilled driving positions, Mabry pointed out that there are a wide variety of jobs related to autonomous trucks and the rest of the supply chain that will need workers.

“These are some of the most well-inspected vehicles on the roads,” Mabry said. “Every time they’re launched, they’re fully inspected. You’re going to need people to do the inspections, fueling, maintenance and oversee operations. The hubs will need managing, too. As these jobs start evolving, it’s going to give drivers more opportunity to move up.”

Mabry also emphasized the potential for evolving what it means to be a truck driver, shifting from a model of multi-day long haul routes to a “wagon-wheel” approach where drivers can be based at home and do day-long routes in order to be home in time for dinner with their family – something that’s particularly appealing to the next generation of drivers.

“Autonomy touches on the driver shortage… with a wagon wheel type network, drivers are home and have a good quality of life,” Mabry explained. “The first and final miles are always going to exist, and driving is a good-paying job.”

The Future of Autonomous Trucking Is Now

When asked during the roundtable how confident the panelists are in autonomous vehicle technology for deployment barring regulations, Goff says, “There are really only a handful of regular barriers right now… For most of us in this space, what we’re working towards is building and completing the first version of the safety case that shows how safe these vehicles are.”

Hayden from Trimble noted, “We’re primarily focused on (SAE) level four automation here, and we’ve been in level two and level three solutions for several years now. We have over 178 million miles driven with our technology… and it’s just a matter of time before it transitions to level four.”

When it comes to the best time to start investing in autonomous trucks, there’s no time like the present, according to Forman.

“Three to four years from now, there’s going to be massive investment in autonomy, but by that point you’re going to be too late,” Forman said. “The folks who are really smart are placing money now – these are the best bets that in the next two years are going to really pay off.”

Moderator Seth Clevenger pointed out that deployment timelines for autonomous vehicles is “not something that’s in the far future anymore,” with Kodiak, Torc and other AV companies preparing for significant deployment milestones in the coming months and years.

“Our current milestone is to launch real 24/7 commercial driverless service by Q1 of next year [2025],” Goff said of Kodiak’s current timeline. “And we anticipate our first driverless over-the-road deliveries in the back half of 2025, so the technology is definitely coming, and in fact, scaling up.”

As for Torc, Mabry says “we are on pace to make our goal of fully commercial in Q1 2027 – the reason for that is that it allows us to scale.” By then, Mabry said, Torc will be ready to produce larger quantities of trucks for fleets who may want hundreds or thousands of autonomous Freightliner models.

To prepare for integrating autonomous trucks into your fleet, the panelists recommended considering how your business would change if you could have trucks on the road 24x7x365. For example, what new kinds of freight could you haul? Where would you operate from? And what are some of your biggest opportunities for increasing revenue as a result?

Determining the answers to these questions and more will help you prepare for the day autonomous trucks are ready to deploy for your business. You don’t need to answer these questions on your own, either – continue the conversation with your equipment and technology partners so when the right time comes, you’re ready to flip the switch to autonomy.

Visit the Trimble Insight 2024 event hub to read more. Or, contact our team to learn how Trimble can help prepare your fleet for the future of autonomous trucking with our industry-leading solutions.