Trimble Insight 2024: ATRI’s Dan Murray Talks Critical Issues Shaping the Future of Trucking

The trucking industry is at a crossroads, facing the headwinds of a freight recession, rising operational costs, technological advancements and a tumultuous political climate, among other challenges. In a special session at the Trimble’s Insight Tech Conference, Dan Murray, Senior Vice President of the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI), offered his informed assessments of those challenges and advice on how companies can move forward and find success.

Driver Shortage and Retention

The trucking economy has endured seven straight quarters of negative growth, and last year, according to ATRI's annual survey, the economy surpassed the driver shortage as the industry’s top concern. As the second-highest concern for motor carriers, the driver shortage will require tapping into new labor markets. 

Murray discussed the challenges of the 21-year age CDL requirement for interstate commerce. "We have the absolute smallest percentage of new entrants coming into the industry compared to all of the labor sectors of the economy," he said.

ATRI's data shows an aging workforce compounds the demographic challenge—the average age of truck drivers is 52. Murray suggested the industry focus on younger drivers and women to address this issue. He discussed programs that some carriers use to successfully attract 18 to 20-year-old drivers, first as dispatchers, bookkeepers, or terminal forklift operators. When they turn 21, the fleets offer them free CDL training.

Regarding women in trucking, Murray pointed out that women are about 47.5 percent of the country's labor force but comprise 2.7% of Class 8 over-the-road truck drivers. Research shows that women drivers are safer than their male counterparts in every statistically significant driving behavior category. Overall, women truck drivers have 14% fewer crashes than men.

“This is a huge opportunity for us to improve truck safety, security and ergonomics,” Murray said. When recruiting women drivers, he suggests that fleets emphasize the opportunity to get a job that offers pay parity from day one. Women make as much, if not more, than male truck drivers.

Regulatory Challenges and Marijuana Legalization

The increasing legalization of marijuana across states presents a significant challenge for the trucking industry’s driver population. To date, 132,000 truck drivers have tested positive for THC and have not yet started the return-to-duty process to be eligible for hire in the FMCSA’s drug and alcohol clearinghouse. He predicts this issue will limit the pool of drivers and create new safety concerns.

Economic Pressures and Operational Costs

Insurance premiums have reached their highest level in the more than ten years ATRI has been collecting cost data. This is particularly challenging for smaller carriers.

"Big fleets have a lot more capital liquidity,” he said. “They can move their self-insurance from $100,000 to $300,000 without blinking.” But many small carriers, particularly owner-operators, lack the cash reserves to increase their deductibles to stem the rising tide of insurance costs.

Technology Adoption and Driver Acceptance

The industry has turned to technology to address safety concerns. Road-facing cameras have become the most preferred technology of truck drivers, marking a significant shift from previous attitudes. However, driver-facing cameras remain controversial. “There is lots of work to do with driver-facing cameras. They're despised substantially more by women than men drivers," Murray said.

To increase acceptance of these technologies, Murray suggests fleets have clear usage policies for driver-facing video and give drivers access to the same feeds that management sees.

Environmental Regulations and Alternative Fuels

The push for zero-emission vehicles is creating new challenges for the industry. Murray is skeptical about the current viability of battery-electric trucks, citing weight and range limitations and infrastructure challenges. "The math doesn't work very well. The heavier the batteries, the more expensive the truck becomes," he said.

Instead, Murray was optimistic about renewable diesel as a more practical solution. "Today, 50% of the diesel sold in California is now renewable," he states. "Renewable diesel is twice as clean as a battery-electric truck."

Driver Detention/Dwell Time and Its Impact

Driver detention remains a significant issue affecting operational efficiency and driver satisfaction. Research shows that detained drivers increase speeds by 14.6% to compensate for lost time and money. This behavior could have safety implications and contribute to driver turnover. Murray emphasized the need for education and awareness among shippers and receivers.

Cargo Theft and Cybersecurity

The industry is facing evolving threats in cargo theft. Murray notes, "We're already seeing, just in the data out there today, very dramatic shifts in how cargo is stolen. It's getting sophisticated.”

Researching cargo theft is a top priority for ATRI in 2025. The research will include fraud from double brokering and identity theft, which presents significant challenges for carriers, brokers, and technology providers.

Looking Ahead

Despite these challenges, Murray remains cautiously optimistic about the industry's future. "I do think 2025 will be an excellent year for trucking. I think we're turning some corners," he predicts.

Murray advised stakeholders to stay informed and adaptable. He encourages industry participants to leverage ATRI's research by visiting the ATRI website to download free reports on many issues and to participate in new research projects.

Murray stressed that addressing the industry’s top issues will require collaboration among all stakeholders—carriers, shippers, brokers, and technology providers. He recommended that stakeholders stay informed about the challenges and work together on solutions to building a more resilient and efficient future for trucking.

Visit our Trimble Insight 2024 event hub to read more. Or, contact our team to learn how Trimble can help your organization adapt to ever-changing market conditions.

This piece was produced in collaboration with Aaron Huff, a former editor of Commercial Carrier Journal and now Chief Content Srategist at Virago Marketing, a full-service marketing agency specializing in transportation and supply chain technology. Huff spent 21 years covering the transportation and logistics industry and since 2021, has been helping companies generate demand and leads using expertly crafted digital strategy, content and execution.

Follow him on LinkedIn or get in touch at aaron@viragomarketing.com.