Decoding the Q2 Carrier Rate Report: a technology perspective from Trimble’s Rishi Mehra

FreightWaves recently released their Q2 Carrier Rate Report (sponsored by Trimble), a comprehensive look at the market conditions and trends impacting carriers. The report highlights challenging freight market conditions during Q1 2025 due to new trade policies, depressed freight demand, excess capacity and increased competition from rail, as well as broader concerns about consumer health and persistent inflation. 

To provide deeper insights into the report's findings, we’ve turned to Rishi Mehra, Vice President of Transportation Product Management at Trimble. Rishi brings a sharp, globally-minded technological perspective to the industry, always seeking innovative software solutions to navigate market complexities. Download the complete report here.

Check out Rishi’s take on the report below. Or, contact our team to learn how our solutions can help your business navigate these complex market conditions. 

1. The report highlights the rapid deterioration of spot rates in Q1 2025 and the conditions influencing this change. What’s your reaction to this situation and what does it tell you about the state of the market?

The rapid deterioration of spot rates in Q1, as the report outlines, is a clear signal of market imbalance and a direct consequence of shifting global trade policies. From a technology perspective, it underscores the critical need for dynamic, real-time visibility into market fluctuations. 

This situation tells me the market is highly susceptible to external shocks, particularly policy changes and economic uncertainties. It reinforces the idea that traditional, static approaches to rate management are no longer viable. The industry requires agile, data-driven strategies to adapt to such volatile conditions and maintain efficiency.

2. How can technology help carriers and shippers mitigate the impact of this rate volatility and disruption on their bottom line? What role can technology - especially AI-powered solutions - play in more accurate forecasting and pricing strategies in this environment?

Technology is the essential lever for navigating this rate volatility. For carriers and shippers, robust transportation management systems (TMS) are foundational, providing real-time data on capacity, demand and rates. But they’re no longer the end-all, be-all. A company’s TMS has to do more. 

AI-powered solutions significantly elevate a carrier’s tech stack. Machine learning algorithms can analyze vast datasets—historical rates, fuel costs, weather patterns and even geopolitical events—to provide highly accurate forecasting. This allows for predictive pricing strategies, enabling carriers to optimize their bids and shippers to secure more favorable rates. With a thoughtful operator behind it, AI can model countless scenarios, helping businesses make more informed decisions than ever before and reduce financial exposure in a fluctuating market.

3. This report mentions that spot rates averaged $2.35 per mile in Q1, virtually unchanged from Q4. What does this stagnation suggest? Where do you see the market going in the near term and/or the long term?

The stagnation of spot rates at $2.35 per mile from Q4 to Q1 suggests a prolonged period of suppressed demand, likely exacerbated by the trade policy shifts detailed in the report. 

Unfortunately, this indicates that the industry is still wrestling with excess capacity relative to available freight and that it might be for longer than anyone would like. 

In the near term, I anticipate continued pressure on rates, especially with persistent inflation and high interest rates limiting consumer spending and increasing operational costs. Long term, I believe we'll see a consolidation in the market, with more technologically advanced and adaptable companies thriving as they leverage data and automation to optimize operations and pricing.

4. If you could give one major piece of advice to carriers and/or shippers struggling in this environment, what would it be? How do you think they can best position themselves to adapt and thrive?

My primary advice would be to embrace a proactive, data-centric approach to decision-making. For both carriers and shippers, this means investing in and fully leveraging integrated technological solutions. Don't just react to market changes; anticipate them. Utilize advanced analytics and AI to gain deep insights into market trends, optimize routes, manage capacity more efficiently, and refine pricing strategies. 

Building strong, collaborative relationships facilitated by shared data platforms can also lead to more stable partnerships. Those who truly operationalize data will be the ones best positioned to adapt and thrive in this challenging environment.

5. This report emphasizes the significant impact the US-China trade war has had. As of May 12, the US and China agreed to pause the largest tariffs, but how did tariffs impact demand and freight volumes?

Before tensions eased in the US-China trade war, demand and freight volumes faced significant uncertainty and direct cost increases. Abnormally high tariffs, like the 145% levy on Chinese imports, greatly disrupted established supply chains and led to decreased manufacturer and consumer sentiment. This, in turn, directly translates to lower import volumes and reduced overall demand for truckload services. 

While some front-loading of imports occurred to preempt tariffs, this is a temporary effect. The long-term consequence is a redirection or reduction of trade flows, creating a more fragmented and less predictable freight landscape globally, impacting overall demand for transportation services.

6. Is there a bright spot among the challenges? What do you see as potential good news, or an optimistic perspective?

Despite the stormy outlook, I do see a significant bright spot: the accelerating adoption of advanced technologies, especially AI, can lead to a transformative moment in logistics. This period of disruption is forcing companies to re-evaluate their operations and invest in solutions that offer greater efficiency, visibility and adaptability. I believe that while challenging, this pressure will ultimately lead to a more resilient and technologically sophisticated transportation ecosystem. 

AI’s ability to optimize routes, predict demand fluctuations and streamline complex logistics processes represents a powerful tool that, when fully embraced, can transform current challenges into opportunities. 

Looking ahead, I'm especially excited about what our own AI-powered Trimble Autonomous Procurement solution can offer. It combines intelligent algorithms, predictive analytics and streamlined processes to help companies efficiently and effectively navigate the spot market. The future of logistics will depend more and more on the proactive optimization of networks, strategies and operations. We’re committed to building a path to this future so everyone can succeed amid an evolving market.